Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 19,825
2 New Jersey 18,668
3 Massachusetts 15,185
4 Rhode Island 14,973
5 District of Columbia 13,586
6 Connecticut 12,470
7 Illinois 10,395
8 Delaware 10,378
9 Maryland 10,060
10 Louisiana 9,590
11 Nebraska 8,434
12 Iowa 7,322
13 Michigan 6,571
14 South Dakota 6,403
15 Pennsylvania 6,400
16 Mississippi 6,210
17 Virginia 6,167
18 Indiana 5,899
19 Minnesota 5,203
20 Colorado 4,971
21 Georgia 4,928
22 Alabama 4,659
23 New Mexico 4,467
24 Arizona 4,331
25 Tennessee 4,212
26 Utah 4,169
27 North Dakota 3,914
28 New Hampshire 3,830
29 North Carolina 3,788
30 Wisconsin 3,786
31 Kansas 3,770
32 California 3,636
33 Arkansas 3,584
34 Washington 3,436
35 Ohio 3,422
36 Nevada 3,397
37 Florida 3,215
38 South Carolina 3,193
39 Texas 2,889
40 Kentucky 2,714
41 Missouri 2,594
42 Maine 1,984
43 Oklahoma 1,927
44 Idaho 1,848
45 Vermont 1,778
46 Wyoming 1,743
47 Puerto Rico 1,675
48 Oregon 1,244
49 West Virginia 1,237
50 Alaska 910
51 Montana 526
52 Hawaii 480

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 172
2 Alabama 130
3 Arkansas 118
4 South Carolina 106
5 Iowa 104
6 Utah 102
7 Louisiana 101
8 North Carolina 100
9 Maryland 99
10 Nebraska 97
11 District of Columbia 94
12 Mississippi 80
13 California 79
14 Tennessee 75
15 Texas 74
16 Georgia 73
17 South Dakota 73
18 Nevada 70
19 Rhode Island 69
20 Minnesota 65
21 Florida 64
22 Illinois 57
23 Indiana 57
24 Virginia 54
25 Massachusetts 50
26 Wisconsin 50
27 New Jersey 49
28 New Mexico 48
29 Delaware 45
30 North Dakota 43
31 Missouri 41
32 Pennsylvania 39
33 New York 35
34 Oklahoma 35
35 Connecticut 34
36 Ohio 33
37 Kentucky 31
38 New Hampshire 31
39 Puerto Rico 31
40 Kansas 29
41 Wyoming 28
42 Alaska 26
43 Colorado 26
44 Oregon 25
45 Washington 25
46 Michigan 23
47 Idaho 19
48 Maine 19
49 Vermont 18
50 West Virginia 10
51 Montana 4
52 Hawaii 3

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,564
2 New Jersey 1,400
3 Connecticut 1,162
4 Massachusetts 1,086
5 Rhode Island 776
6 District of Columbia 711
7 Louisiana 642
8 Michigan 599
9 Illinois 504
10 Pennsylvania 483
11 Maryland 475
12 Delaware 425
13 Indiana 353
14 Mississippi 291
15 Colorado 274
16 Minnesota 226
17 New Hampshire 226
18 Georgia 220
19 Ohio 213
20 Iowa 203
21 New Mexico 200
22 Virginia 178
23 Washington 157
24 Arizona 155
25 Alabama 153
26 Nevada 149
27 Missouri 142
28 Florida 132
29 California 125
30 Wisconsin 117
31 Kentucky 114
32 South Carolina 114
33 Nebraska 112
34 North Carolina 106
35 North Dakota 101
36 Oklahoma 90
37 Vermont 88
38 Kansas 83
39 South Dakota 82
40 Maine 74
41 Texas 66
42 Tennessee 64
43 Arkansas 56
44 Idaho 48
45 West Virginia 47
46 Puerto Rico 45
47 Oregon 40
48 Utah 40
49 Wyoming 31
50 Montana 16
51 Alaska 12
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 8
2 Rhode Island 7
3 Illinois 6
4 Massachusetts 6
5 Connecticut 5
6 Delaware 5
7 District of Columbia 5
8 Georgia 5
9 Maryland 5
10 New Hampshire 5
11 Minnesota 4
12 Pennsylvania 4
13 Arizona 3
14 Indiana 3
15 Louisiana 3
16 Mississippi 3
17 Nebraska 3
18 New Mexico 3
19 New York 3
20 South Dakota 3
21 Alabama 2
22 California 2
23 Colorado 2
24 Florida 2
25 Michigan 2
26 Missouri 2
27 North Carolina 2
28 Ohio 2
29 South Carolina 2
30 Wisconsin 2
31 Arkansas 1
32 Iowa 1
33 Kentucky 1
34 Nevada 1
35 Tennessee 1
36 Virginia 1
37 Washington 1
38 Alaska 0
39 Hawaii 0
40 Idaho 0
41 Kansas 0
42 Maine 0
43 Montana 0
44 North Dakota 0
45 Oklahoma 0
46 Oregon 0
47 Puerto Rico 0
48 Texas 0
49 Utah 0
50 Vermont 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,981 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,062 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 86,438 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 75,706 4 99
Nobles Minnesota 74,067 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 9,547 244 92
Richland South Carolina 4,825 606 80
Pierce Washington 2,618 1103 64
Orange California 2,589 1113 64
York South Carolina 1,982 1358 56

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,429 1 99
Terrell Georgia 3,048 2 99
Early Georgia 3,042 3 99
Randolph Georgia 2,951 4 99
Northampton Virginia 2,306 5 99
Richland South Carolina 168 651 79
Davidson Tennessee 117 815 74
Pierce Washington 96 927 70
Orange California 64 1151 63
York South Carolina 36 1451 53

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons